Polstrat Opinion Poll 2025 predicts a decisive lead for BJP-led NDA in Bihar Assembly elections, projecting 133–142 seats against Mahagathbandhan’s 80–88, as Jan Suraaj emerges as a new youth-centric political force.
In a major boost to the ruling coalition, the Polstrat Opinion Poll for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 has forecasted a clear and decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Contrary to recent surveys suggesting a close contest, Polstrat’s latest findings reveal that the NDA is set to maintain its political dominance over the opposition Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left) with a comfortable majority.
The poll, conducted on a large and diverse sample size of 8.42 lakh respondents across Bihar, gives the NDA an estimated 44.80% vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan trails at 38.60% — a significant 6% lead that could translate into a commanding majority in the 243-member Assembly.
Seat Projection: NDA Headed for 133–142 Seats
According to Polstrat’s seat projections, the NDA is expected to secure between 133 and 142 seats, comfortably crossing the halfway mark. The BJP is projected to win 70–72 seats, while its key ally JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is likely to capture 53–56 seats. Smaller allies such as LJP (Ram Vilas) and HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi) are expected to secure 10–12 and 0–2 seats respectively.
On the opposition front, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 80–88 seats, with RJD claiming the lion’s share at 69–72 seats, while the Congress may manage 10–13 seats. The Left parties are expected to remain marginal players in the upcoming polls.
Youth Vote: Jan Suraaj Emerges as Third Force
A key highlight of the Polstrat survey is the emergence of Jan Suraaj, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, as a potential third force in Bihar politics. The party appears to be gaining traction among first-time voters and the youth demographic aged 18–25 years.
The poll reveals that over 12% of voters in the 18–25 age group expressed support for Jan Suraaj, positioning it as a serious player capable of influencing the overall vote dynamics, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
Age-Wise Breakdown of Voting Preferences
Polstrat’s detailed demographic analysis highlights stark generational divides in voter preferences across Bihar:
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18–25 years: Mahagathbandhan leads slightly with 40.73%, while NDA follows closely.
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26–40 years: NDA regains its edge with 43.18% support.
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41–59 years: NDA’s popularity rises sharply to 47%, reflecting stronger loyalty among middle-aged voters.
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60+ years: NDA maintains dominance with 47%+ preference among senior citizens.
This indicates that while the youth vote is fragmented, older voters continue to form the core base of support for the BJP-led alliance.
Other Contenders: AIMIM and RLJP Remain Marginal
The poll also evaluated the performance of other regional players, including Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Pashupati Paras’s RLJP, and the ASP, all of which contested independently in previous elections. Together, these smaller outfits are expected to win 0–3 seats, suggesting limited impact on the overall outcome.
Chanakya Strategies Confirms Similar Trend
Interestingly, Chanakya Strategies, another reputed polling agency, has released similar projections, forecasting an NDA win with 128–134 seats and Mahagathbandhan securing 102–108 seats. The alignment of both polls reinforces the growing consensus that NDA is on course for a return to power in Patna.
Key Takeaways
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NDA Vote Share: 44.80%
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Mahagathbandhan Vote Share: 38.60%
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NDA Seat Projection: 133–142
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Mahagathbandhan Seat Projection: 80–88
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Jan Suraaj (Youth Support): 12% among 18–25 age group
As Bihar heads towards the 2025 Assembly elections, Polstrat’s survey signals a shifting political landscape marked by NDA’s consolidation, youth experimentation with new options like Jan Suraaj, and a waning Congress performance.
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With a decisive mandate appearing likely, all eyes are now on how the ground campaign and final alliances shape the last leg of Bihar’s political race.
