By Somprakash Dhar
Pakistan Faces Serious Starvation Threats As India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty and now with 80% of farmland dependent on Indus water, Pakistan’s food security is at stake .
In an unprecedented and high-stakes diplomatic maneuver, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, citing Islamabad’s persistent support for cross-border terrorism and its alleged involvement in the recent deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The move, announced following an emergency session of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marks a dramatic escalation in bilateral tensions and puts Pakistan under intense strategic, economic, and environmental pressure.
Signed in 1960 under the aegis of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has long been considered a model of successful water diplomacy. It survived multiple wars, military stand-offs, and decades of political hostilities. Under the agreement, India was granted control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan received rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), which account for about 80% of Pakistan’s water supply.
But India’s decision to place the treaty “in abeyance” signals a dramatic policy departure—one that shifts the geopolitical playing field from cross-border skirmishes and diplomatic protests to strategic control over vital natural resources.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, of course, does not immediately halt the flow of water from the Indus River system to Pakistan. While the treaty governs water-sharing mechanisms, including data exchange and project approvals, its suspension primarily affects cooperative frameworks rather than the physical flow of water. For India to completely stop or divert water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, significant infrastructure, such as dams or diversion channels, would need to be built. This process would take time and require substantial resources. However, the suspension signals India’s intent to exert pressure on Pakistan, potentially leading to future disruptions if tensions persist.
Strategic Waters as Diplomatic Leverage
The implications of this suspension, nevertheless, are profound for Pakistan, whose economy and food security heavily depend on the Indus River system. Nearly 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land is irrigated using water from these rivers. Crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane—critical not only for domestic consumption but also for exports—face the risk of failure if the flow of water is restricted or delayed.
“Pakistan is walking a tightrope,” said a former Indian diplomat familiar with the water-sharing arrangements. “It lacks sufficient storage infrastructure and is one of the most water-stressed nations in the world. If India decides to cut or regulate water flows more stringently, the fallout could be catastrophic.”
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Urban Crisis and Economic Repercussions
The urban implications of India’s move are no less severe. Major cities including Karachi, Lahore, Multan, and others are directly dependent on water sourced from the Indus system. Any sustained reduction in flow could trigger massive water shortages, impacting daily life, sanitation, and potentially sparking unrest in an already politically volatile climate.
Economically, the shock could be seismic. Agriculture contributes nearly 23% to Pakistan’s GDP and provides livelihoods for approximately 68% of the rural population. A large-scale disruption in water availability could decimate this sector, triggering food inflation, job losses, and rural distress. Moreover, hydropower stations like Tarbela and Mangla, which rely on consistent river flows, would see their capacity diminished, worsening Pakistan’s persistent electricity shortages.
Diplomatic Fallout and Global Reactions
Pakistan is expected to approach international bodies such as the United Nations or the World Bank, both of which have historically played roles in the implementation and supervision of the treaty. However, India is betting that its tough posture on terrorism—and global fatigue over Pakistan’s perceived inaction on terror infrastructure—will limit Islamabad’s ability to rally support.
“India’s decision represents a clear message to the international community,” said a strategic affairs expert. “Terrorism will no longer be tolerated with impunity, and every tool—diplomatic, economic, and strategic—is now on the table.”
A Calculated Pressure Point
It is important to note that while India has suspended the treaty, the physical cessation of water flow has not yet been enacted. Officials have confirmed that such a step, which would involve redirecting river flows or building necessary infrastructure, requires time and technical planning. However, even the symbolic weight of the suspension has already put Pakistan on high alert.
“Pakistan does not have the capacity to store more than 30 days’ worth of water,” noted an Indian water resource analyst. “They are completely vulnerable to any upstream disruption.”
The treaty’s suspension is not merely a reaction to the Pahalgam attack—it represents a broader recalibration of India’s strategic doctrine. Gone is the era of restraint and patience. In its place is a clear-eyed willingness to use leverage where it matters most.
Conclusion: A New Chapter in India-Pakistan Relations
With the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India has delivered a powerful signal—not just to Pakistan, but to the world—that the costs of terrorism will now be borne in full measure. While Pakistan scrambles to assess the fallout and prepare its diplomatic counteroffensive, India has made it clear that old rules no longer apply.
The Pahalgam terror attack may have been the trigger, but the ramifications of India’s latest move will echo far beyond Kashmir. The message is unequivocal: cooperation is conditional, and consequences are now real.
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