Chinese influence over Pakistan’s foreign policy has raised doubts about Islamabad’s neutrality in mediating between the United States and Iran. A geopolitical analysis highlights Pakistan’s growing dependence on Beijing, strategic military ties, and concerns surrounding its role in the West Asia conflict.
Questions surrounding Pakistan’s diplomatic neutrality have intensified after a geopolitical assessment claimed that Islamabad’s attempts to mediate between the United States and Iran are closely tied to China’s strategic interests rather than independent peace efforts.
The analysis, written by Italian political advisor and geopolitical expert Sergio Restelli for The Times of Israel, argued that Pakistan’s role in the ongoing tensions involving the United States, Iran and Israel cannot be separated from Beijing’s growing influence over Islamabad’s foreign and security policies.
According to the report, Pakistan is attempting to position itself as a responsible diplomatic actor capable of maintaining relations with Washington, Tehran and Gulf nations simultaneously. Islamabad has increasingly projected itself as a possible intermediary in the volatile West Asia crisis, aiming to present an image of credibility before both regional powers and the broader Muslim world.
However, the report stressed that Pakistan’s mediation efforts are not rooted in neutrality. Instead, they reflect a strategic alignment shaped by the country’s deepening economic, military and political dependence on China.
Restelli stated that Pakistan’s relationship with China has evolved far beyond conventional diplomatic cooperation. Referring to the long-standing partnership often described by officials as an “all-weather friendship” and “iron brotherhood,” he argued that such phrases conceal a harder geopolitical reality in which Pakistan increasingly relies on Beijing for its strategic survival.
The article also traced the origins of the relationship to the Karakoram region and the Shaksgam Valley in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, territory ceded by Pakistan to China decades ago. According to the report, this historical foundation helped shape a strategic partnership that now extends deeply into defence, infrastructure and regional diplomacy.
Restelli claimed that Pakistan’s diplomatic positioning in the Iran-US conflict serves a broader Chinese objective. He suggested that Beijing prefers to remain less publicly visible while allowing Islamabad to communicate with multiple stakeholders on its behalf. In this arrangement, Pakistan can engage Tehran, Washington and Gulf nations simultaneously, while China safeguards its larger strategic interests in the region.
The report further highlighted China’s economic and security priorities in West Asia, arguing that Beijing seeks regional stability mainly to protect its energy supplies, trade routes and long-term commercial interests. China also aims to avoid a wider regional conflict that could threaten its economic expansion and global trade network.
Citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) for 2026, the article noted that Pakistan’s arms imports rose by 66 percent between 2021 and 2025. Of that total, China reportedly accounted for nearly 80 percent of all military imports into Pakistan.
The report described this trend not as diversification but as strategic dependency. It argued that a country whose military systems, including air defence platforms, aircraft and naval capabilities, are heavily supplied by one nation cannot realistically claim complete independence in geopolitical decision-making.
Restelli maintained that China’s primary concern is not necessarily securing an Iranian victory or enhancing Pakistan’s international stature. Instead, Beijing’s focus lies in maintaining stability under conditions favourable to Chinese interests, including uninterrupted energy access and preventing escalation between Iran and Western powers.
The assessment comes at a time of heightened uncertainty across West Asia, where tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States continue to shape regional diplomacy and security calculations. Pakistan has repeatedly expressed support for diplomatic engagement and peaceful dialogue in the region, though critics increasingly question whether Islamabad can genuinely function as a neutral mediator given its expanding strategic partnership with China.
| Also Read: India Expands Gulf Influence Through Strong UAE Energy Alliance |
The report concludes that Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach may ultimately serve as an extension of Beijing’s regional strategy, raising broader concerns among international observers about the balance of power, influence and neutrality in one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical theatres.
