Exit polls predict UDF victory in Kerala, signaling potential end of LDF rule under Pinarayi Vijayan. Surveys show Congress-led alliance crossing majority mark with strong vote share advantage ahead of crucial counting day results.
A broad set of exit poll projections has pointed to a significant political shift in Kerala, indicating that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) could return to power after spending nearly a decade in opposition. The forecasts, released after the completion of voting, suggest a clear advantage for the opposition alliance over the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF).
If these projections hold true when votes are counted, the outcome would mark the end of the tenure of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, whose government has been in office for two consecutive terms. The Kerala Legislative Assembly has a total of 140 seats, and most exit polls indicate that the UDF is likely to cross the majority mark of 71 seats comfortably.
According to the CNN–News18 exit poll, the UDF is projected to secure between 70 and 80 seats. Meanwhile, People’s Pulse has predicted an even stronger performance, estimating the alliance’s tally between 75 and 85 seats. Other polling agencies, including PMARQ and Matrize, have echoed similar trends, reinforcing the possibility of a decisive mandate in favor of the Congress-led bloc.
Vote share projections further strengthen this outlook. Axis My India estimates that the UDF could secure approximately 44 percent of the vote, compared to around 39 percent for the LDF. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to receive about 14 percent, while other parties may collectively account for roughly 3 percent. Several other surveys, including those by Times Now-JVC and CNN Vote Vibe, have indicated a consistent lead of about five percentage points for the UDF.
Detailed seat projections across agencies present a similar narrative. CNN–News18 suggests the UDF could win 70–80 seats, while the LDF may secure 58–68 and the NDA 0–4. PMARQ estimates the UDF at 71–79 seats, LDF at 62–69, and NDA at 1–4. Matrize projects the UDF with 70–75 seats, LDF with 60–65, and NDA with 3–5. People’s Pulse offers the most optimistic estimate for the UDF, placing it between 75 and 85 seats, while the LDF is expected to remain within 55–65.
Despite these projections, the ruling LDF had earlier expressed confidence in retaining power, citing its governance track record and welfare initiatives. Leaders from the alliance suggested that even a narrow majority would be sufficient to secure another term. On the other hand, UDF leaders have attributed their projected success to strong anti-incumbency sentiment and a coordinated campaign strategy, with some claiming the alliance could exceed expectations and approach the 90-seat mark.
| Also Read: DMK Set for Big Win in Tamil Nadu Exit Polls |
The BJP-led NDA, although not expected to emerge as a major force in the state, remains optimistic about improving its footprint, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.
While exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, they are not always definitive. In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, most exit polls had accurately predicted an LDF victory, but variations in final outcomes remain possible. With a high voter turnout recorded during polling, attention now shifts to the official counting day, when the electorate’s final verdict will determine whether the projected political transition becomes reality.
