Bangladesh elections 2025: BNP surges ahead of Jamaat as opinion polls show landslide support, while rising pre-election violence, religious extremism concerns, and India’s security alert intensify regional focus on stability and democracy.
As Bangladesh heads toward a crucial national election scheduled for February 12, the political landscape appears to be shifting decisively in favour of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Recent opinion polls indicate that the BNP has opened a commanding lead over Jamaat-e-Islami, reversing earlier projections that suggested a closely fought contest. The widening gap has not only reshaped domestic political calculations but has also heightened concerns about escalating violence and regional security, prompting India to remain on high alert.
According to the latest opinion poll conducted by the Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), nearly 70 per cent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the BNP. In contrast, Jamaat-e-Islami has seen its support shrink dramatically to just 19 per cent, indicating a substantial erosion of public confidence. Only a month ago, surveys had pointed to a tight race between the two parties, making the current figures a striking turnaround.
Political analysts attribute the BNP’s surge to a combination of emotional, organisational, and strategic factors. The death of former Prime Minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia has triggered a widespread sympathy wave across the country. For many voters, her passing symbolises the end of an era, galvanising support for the party she led for decades. This sentiment has been further reinforced by the return of her son, Tarique Rahman, whose active involvement has energised party cadres and strengthened grassroots mobilisation.
Observers also point to a growing public backlash against Jamaat-e-Islami, largely driven by concerns over persistent violence and religious extremism. Intelligence officials note that many Bangladeshis increasingly associate Jamaat with instability, ideological rigidity, and external interference. There is a prevailing fear among voters that a Jamaat-led government would undermine Bangladesh’s sovereignty and secular constitutional framework.
An Intelligence Bureau official stated that a significant section of the population believes Jamaat’s close alignment with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) poses a direct threat to national independence. “The public perception is that an ISI-influenced Jamaat would compromise Bangladesh’s autonomy and push the country toward a theocratic model,” the official said, adding that voters aspire for economic growth and social stability rather than religious authoritarianism.
The decline of Jamaat has also been accelerated by shifts within the traditional support base of the Awami League. With the ruling party barred from contesting the upcoming elections, its supporters have been forced to reconsider their political options. The survey reveals that nearly 60 per cent of former Awami League supporters now intend to back the BNP, while 25 per cent have moved toward Jamaat. Political experts believe the BNP has benefited the most from this realignment due to its broader national appeal and organisational strength.
Smaller parties remain marginal players in the evolving contest. The newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP) has garnered just 2.9 per cent support, while the Jatiya Party trails further behind with only 1.4 per cent. These numbers suggest a highly polarised electoral environment dominated by the BNP-Jamaat rivalry, albeit one increasingly tilted in BNP’s favour.
Demographic trends further reinforce the BNP’s advantage. The party enjoys strong backing among women voters, with 71 per cent indicating their preference for the BNP. Regionally, the party continues to dominate in key areas such as Rajshahi and Chattogram, where it is projected to secure nearly 70 per cent of the vote. Overall, 77 per cent of respondents expressed confidence that the BNP will form the next government.
Despite these favourable indicators, security agencies have issued serious warnings about the potential for violence in the run-up to the polls. Officials caution that the Jamaat-ISI nexus may attempt to destabilise the situation in order to justify a postponement of the elections. Creating an atmosphere of fear and chaos, they argue, could be used as a pretext to claim that conditions are unsuitable for voting.
These concerns are not unfounded. In the past 18 days alone, Bangladesh has witnessed a disturbing spike in targeted violence, including the killing of six Hindu citizens. In the last 24 hours, two more Hindu men were reportedly murdered by radical elements. Intelligence agencies fear that such attacks may intensify as election day approaches, aimed at polarising communities and disrupting the democratic process.
The rising instability has also drawn close attention from India. New Delhi views developments in Bangladesh as strategically significant, given the shared border and deep economic, cultural, and security ties between the two nations. Following Khaleda Zia’s death, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a condolence message to Tarique Rahman, delivered personally by External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar. Diplomatic sources confirm that India has maintained communication with several BNP leaders in anticipation of a possible change in government.
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Indian intelligence officials believe a BNP-led government would be conducive to maintaining bilateral cooperation, particularly in areas of counterterrorism and border management. However, they also warn that any escalation of violence could spill over into Indian territory. As a result, border forces have been advised to remain on heightened alert to prevent infiltration or cross-border unrest.
In conclusion, while the BNP’s growing lead reflects a clear shift in public mood toward constitutional governance and political stability, the road to the February elections remains fraught with risk. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate this volatile period peacefully or whether rising violence will overshadow the democratic mandate of its people.
