Bangladesh faces rising violence, democratic uncertainty, and regional tensions under its interim government. A new report warns of political instability, exclusion of opposition parties, growing religious influence, and security risks ahead of the February 2026 national elections.
Bangladesh has entered a deeply volatile transnational and political phase marked by escalating violence, democratic erosion, and growing regional tensions, according to a recent report published by the online magazine Open Canada. The report raises serious concerns about the capacity and intent of the country’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, to manage the unfolding crisis and uphold Bangladesh’s constitutional and democratic foundations.
The interim administration, often described as being dominated by reformist and technocratic figures, is portrayed in the report as either incapable or unwilling to rein in growing unrest across the country. This instability has already spilled beyond Bangladesh’s borders. In December last year, attacks on Indian diplomatic facilities highlighted the seriousness of the situation, forcing the temporary closure of an Indian consular presence in the Chittagong district. These incidents underscored the widening security challenges facing both Bangladesh and the broader South Asian region.
A central question raised by the report is whether Bangladesh can continue to uphold its secular constitutional principles amid the growing influence of religious political forces. The authors note that political instability has increasingly been used as a justification for restricting democratic processes in fragile states. Against this backdrop, uncertainty looms over whether Bangladesh’s national elections, scheduled for February 12, 2026, will proceed as planned or face postponement under the pretext of maintaining order.
The upcoming elections are widely seen as a critical test of Bangladesh’s democratic recovery following years of political turbulence. However, doubts about the credibility and inclusiveness of the electoral process have intensified. The report highlights the exclusion of the Awami League, a historically dominant political party, as a major blow to political pluralism. This exclusion has already cast a shadow over the legitimacy of the electoral framework and raised alarms among international observers.
According to the report, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is expected to play a central role in the elections, while Jamaat-e-Islami has re-emerged as a competitive political force. Previously banned under the government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina due to alleged links with extremist ideology, Jamaat-e-Islami has gained renewed influence, particularly within university politics. This resurgence has fueled concerns about the ideological direction of Bangladesh’s political future.
The report emphasizes that Bangladesh’s current turmoil cannot be fully understood without revisiting the historical foundations of the state. Bangladesh’s independence was not solely driven by economic neglect or political marginalization but also by a profound struggle over identity, language, and democratic representation. These unresolved historical tensions continue to shape contemporary political conflicts and societal divisions.
While Bangladesh has achieved notable economic growth over the past decade, the report warns that development without accountability is inherently unstable. It argues that economic progress can coexist with weakened democratic institutions only temporarily. In the absence of strong checks and balances, such arrangements are likely to result in political upheaval rather than long-term stability.
Heightening these concerns is the ban on Awami League participation in the forthcoming elections. The report notes that many party officials and supporters have reportedly been detained in recent months, sometimes without formal charges or timely access to judicial review. These actions have raised broader questions about due process, rule of law, and political freedoms. Additionally, restrictions imposed on the Awami League-affiliated student group, Bangladesh Chhatra League, have drawn criticism from rights advocates who argue that narrowing democratic space risks deepening instability rather than restoring order.
Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024, Bangladesh has experienced a volatile transitional phase characterized by political violence, attacks on minority communities, and a surge in anti-India sentiment. These developments have triggered concerns among neighboring countries, particularly India, about regional security and diplomatic stability.
| Also Read: US Congress Advances Eastern Mediterranean Bill Backing India |
Of particular concern is the emergence of narratives advocating territorial revisionism, including calls for a so-called “Greater Bangladesh.” Such narratives envision the annexation of India’s northeastern states and, according to the report, represent a dangerous escalation in political rhetoric. Historically, similar claims in the region have served as precursors to confrontation rather than constructive reform.
The report concludes that Bangladesh stands at a critical crossroads. The choices made by its interim leadership in the coming months will determine whether the country can return to a path of inclusive democracy and regional cooperation or slide further into instability with far-reaching consequences for South Asia.
