BJP is on suicidal mode as it repeats Congress’s old mistake in Tripura
It is, indeed, intriguing and an irony in a sense that the ruling BJP seeks to turn a blind eye to TIPRA Motha supremo Pradyot Kishore Debbarman’s open statements. If we take at least two out of many – one given some months ago when he declared that after 2028 elections it would be TIPRA Motha’s ‘Raj’ in Tripura (April 03 2025 Udaipur) , and the second being the straight warning given only recently on June 10 that his party would leave the alliance if the agreements with TIPRA Motha were not implemented soon.
Besides, there was also a video clip in circulation where Kriti Singh, BJP MP and Pradyot Kishore’s sister, was heard saying that she would not like to be ruled by the ‘refugees’. Nobody would like to be ruled by the refugees, but here in Tripura the word ‘refugee’ has, of late, become heavily burdened by ‘communal connotation’ for political purpose ignoring the historical facts conveniently and is being used, conspicuously, as a political tool for inciting hatred against a set of citizens. The oblique reference made by the MP is, thus, not at all missed.
Nevertheless, it is anybody’s guess whether the BJP leadership here or in the centre could feel what was coming or just thought it safe to sweep the warnings under the carpet.
But, in what many political observers are now calling a déjà vu moment, Tripura’s ruling BJP appears to be walking the same slippery slope that once led the Congress into irrelevance in the state’s tribal belt.
The slow but steady ‘political outsourcing’ of the hills—this time to TIPRA Motha by the BJP—bears an uncanny resemblance to the Congress’s earlier dalliance with the now-defunct Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti (TUJS), which eventually laid the groundwork for its downfall in the tribal regions. (Last time Congress got its highest tribal vote -42 percent- in 1972. After that, the politics of subcontract killed the Congress in the hills).
Today, as TIPRA Motha flexes its muscle both as a government ally and an unapologetic tribal pressure group, the BJP finds itself boxed in. The Janajati Morcha lies in disarray, its local base eroded, and its influence in policy decisions rendered ceremonial. Once the ruling party’s critical interface with tribal communities, the Morcha now stands sidelined—its space entirely overtaken by Pradyot Kishore Debbarman’s party.
Once projected as the key bridge to the tribal electorate, while the Janajati Morcha has now been systematically sidelined in both policy deliberation and party functioning, several of its former office bearers have either gone dormant or defected, while internal resentment brews quietly in the hills.
The failure to groom tribal leadership within the BJP ranks, combined with over-centralisation of power, has left a gaping hole—one that TIPRA Motha has stepped into with calculated precision. As a result, the BJP’s tribal outreach today stands weakened, leaderless, and lacking credibility in the eyes of its once-core tribal voters.
As the situation stands today, the ruling BJP in Tripura may still be in control of the state machinery, but it is fast losing, if not already lost, grip over the tribal heartland—a strategic vacuum being deftly filled by its nominal ally and increasingly assertive challenger, TIPRA Motha.
While TIPRA Motha holds only a limited number of seats in the 60-member assembly, its political leverage today far outweighs its arithmetic strength. The party’s rising influence is not merely the result of its grassroots mobilisation or the tribal sentiment for so-called “Greater Tipraland” – a slogan that is more emotionally explosive than politically qualified—it is equally a byproduct of the BJP’s own missteps in tribal affairs.
Despite TIPRA Motha’s formal entry into the BJP-led government, it has continued to function more as a pressure group than a partner. It is an ally that speaks in tongues. In public rallies, and across social media, or in recent times, resorting to pressure-movements, which were in clear violation of the agreement signed in Delhi last year-TIPRA’s rhetoric has frequently bordered on the combative—targeting not only the government’s policy inaction but, more alarmingly, often pitting communities against one another.
Its supremo, Pradyot Kishore Debbarman, has taken to positioning himself as the lone crusader for tribal dignity, while routinely criticising the administration he ostensibly supports. In recent weeks, several of his statements have come under fire for being overtly anti-Bengali, triggering discomfort across community lines and drawing sharp reaction from civil society.
Though the BJP leadership has maintained a studied silence, insiders admit the alliance is strained. “It is like sleeping with one eye open,” a senior BJP leader confided, hinting at the growing unease within the party’s rank and file. He is not entirely wrong if one takes into cognisance the recent statement of Chief Minister Dr Manik Saha that his ‘government will not tolerate pressure tactics anymore and that there should be a ‘limit’ to everything’.
From TUJS to TIPRA: A Subcontracting Pattern That Backfires
Since the 1970s, Congress attempted to retain tribal influence by forming political alliances with TUJS, essentially subcontracting its role in the hills. That temporary fix not only failed to contain tribal discontent but allowed TUJS—and later other regional outfits as its offshoots—to become independent power centres, leaving Congress weakened in both tribal and general constituencies.
Today, the BJP seems to be on the same path. By ceding the tribal discourse and ground operations to TIPRA Motha, the BJP has effectively handed over its hill strategy to a party whose core ideology runs in parallel—and often in direct opposition—to its own. What was once a calculated alliance is now veering into dependency.
TIPRA Motha’s anti-government posturing, particularly on the issue of ‘Greater Tipraland’, continues unabated even after it joined the BJP-led government. And when it isn’t attacking policy, the party is making overtly ethnic claims –time and again trying to portray all the Bengalis in Tripura as ‘Bangladeshis’ -that have begun to polarise communities.
Statements from Motha leaders, including its supremo Pradyot Kishore himself, have drawn criticism for open anti-Bengali tones, which he took up to unite the tribal communities as Thansa and also to sway them as a strategic tool, further fuelling concern among the state’s majority community. This has begun to chip away at the BJP’s once pan-ethnic narrative, pushing it more into a Bengali-centric mould—dangerous in a state where tribal assertion is gaining ground with every passing election.
“Earlier, it was TUJS with Congress. Now it is TIPRA Motha with BJP. The result is the same: the national party becomes a spectator on its own turf,” said a political veteran from the tribal belt.
The ripple effect of this imbalance is now being felt in the Bengali-majority constituencies as well. Anxiety over TIPRA Motha’s rising clout—especially in light of its inflammatory remarks—has created a sentiment of uncertainty among Bengali voters, who fear marginalisation in a future power equation led by Motha.
Delhi’s Overreach and the Tribal-Bengali Fault Line
Many within the BJP’s Tripura unit quietly admit that the Centre’s overreliance on Pradyot Kishore Debbarman is beginning to hurt the party locally. His regular access to Delhi’s top brass—without a corresponding accountability to the state BJP structure—has caused visible friction. The perception that he enjoys a “special channel” to the Union government has only emboldened Motha’s posturing, while simultaneously demoralising the BJP’s local tribal leadership.
As Delhi dictates tribal affairs, often ignoring ground realities, the practice has allowed TIPRA Motha to brand itself as the only party that truly listens.
To make matters worse, the BJP’s handling of the ‘Greater Tipraland’ demand has been marked by ambiguity. While trying to accommodate Motha in government to neutralise its agitation, the BJP simultaneously refused to commit to any real decentralisation—leaving both sides unsatisfied and the public confused.
The Electoral Math and a Tectonic Possibility
If current trends hold, TIPRA Motha is on track to win all of the 20 Scheduled Tribe reserved seats in the 2028 elections. Add to that the party’s increasing ability to influence outcomes in at least 4–5 general constituencies—where tribal votes are decisive—and the numbers could tilt toward a TIPRA-led coalition government or even a standalone Motha-led regime.
Political observers believe that the next Tripura election may well be decided in the hills, not the plains. It is now evident that if current trends continue, TIPRA Motha is poised to not only dominate the tribal constituencies but also emerge as the pivot around which post-election coalitions will be negotiated.
With the Congress weak and the CPI(M) yet to recover its grassroots base, TIPRA Motha is gradually positioning itself as the new centre of political gravity. And unless the BJP urgently repairs its tribal wing and reclaims its narrative in the hills, it might find itself reduced to a party dependent on an increasingly disillusioned Bengali vote bank—without the numbers to govern.
The BJP had once swept Tripura on the promise of integration, inclusion, and a break from ethnic politics. Ironically, it may now end up handing over power to a party that thrives on precisely the opposite.
What remains to be seen is whether BJP’s national leadership will read the writing on the wall—or continue down a path that may well hand over the tribal mandate to a party now shaping itself as a government-in-waiting.
As one former BJP tribal worker from Khowai put it succinctly, “They thought they could rule the hills from Agartala. Now the hills are preparing to rule Agartala.”
Also published in the Tripura Times
