Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 predict a sweeping victory for the BJP-led NDA, crossing the majority mark with ease, while the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan faces a major setback. Jan Suraaj and other smaller parties fail to make impact.
The much-anticipated Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have taken a decisive turn, with all major exit polls predicting a resounding victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and a significant setback for the RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The twin-phase election, held on November 6 and 11, witnessed bumper voter turnout across the state, reflecting high public engagement in one of the most fiercely contested political battles in recent memory.
According to a consolidated Poll of Polls analysis, the NDA is projected to comfortably cross the halfway mark of 122 seats, potentially returning to power in Patna with a commanding majority. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan appears to be struggling to maintain triple digits, with most projections capping its seat share around 100 or below.
Exit Polls Show Clear Edge for NDA
Multiple pollsters, including Chanakya Strategies, Dainik Bhaskar, Polstrat, DV Research, JVC, People’s Insight, IANS-Matrize, P-Marq, and Peoples Pulse, have released forecasts that consistently place the NDA in the driver’s seat.
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Chanakya Strategies projects the NDA securing 130–138 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan managing 100–108 seats, while others bag a meager 3–5 seats.
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Dainik Bhaskar’s poll is even more optimistic for the ruling alliance, forecasting 145–160 seats for the NDA and just 73–91 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.
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Polstrat’s data indicates an NDA vote share of 44.71% translating to 133–148 seats, while the Grand Alliance is seen trailing with 40.34% vote share and 87–102 seats.
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DV Research also mirrors this trend, giving the NDA 137–152 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 83–98 seats, with others limited to 1–8 seats.
Two other agencies — JVC and People’s Insight — offer similar figures, predicting the NDA to win between 133 and 150 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan remains in the 87–103 range.
IANS-Matrize and P-Marq Forecast Thumping Majority for NDA
The IANS-Matrize Exit Poll gives perhaps the boldest prediction, putting the NDA tally between 147–167 seats — a clear mandate — and limiting the Mahagathbandhan to 70–90 seats.
Similarly, P-Marq places the NDA at 142–162 seats, with the opposition Grand Alliance managing 80–98.
Another pollster, Peoples Pulse, aligns with these estimates, projecting 133–159 seats for the NDA and 75–101 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, while smaller parties collectively manage 1–5 seats.
Jan Suraaj, AIMIM Fail to Make Mark
The much-hyped Jan Suraaj party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, appears to have failed to capture the public imagination in its debut electoral battle. Despite high expectations and extensive grassroots campaigning, the exit polls unanimously predict a wipeout for Jan Suraaj, with most surveys awarding it zero to five seats at best.
Similarly, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, along with Independent candidates and smaller regional outfits, are likely to remain marginal players, collectively winning only 2–8 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly.
Implications for Bihar’s Political Landscape
If these exit poll projections translate into actual results, the BJP-led NDA will continue its governance streak in Bihar, reinforcing the state’s trend toward political continuity.
For the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and Congress, the results could signify a period of introspection amid leadership and strategy challenges.
The 2025 polls were seen as a referendum on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s governance, the BJP’s alliance management, and the opposition’s ability to consolidate anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the exit polls suggest that the NDA’s campaign narrative of development, stability, and welfare outreach may have resonated more effectively with Bihar’s electorate.
Final Verdict Awaits Counting Day
While the exit polls indicate a clear trend, political analysts caution that the final verdict will rest on the counting of votes, scheduled for November 14, 2025. In the past, Bihar has occasionally witnessed narrow finishes that defied exit poll predictions.
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Nevertheless, with nearly every major agency pointing toward a “bumper victory” for the NDA, the political winds in Bihar appear to be blowing strongly in its favor.
