Exit polls predict a sweeping victory for BJP in Assam Assembly elections, projecting 85-100 seats for the ruling party while Congress struggles. Himanta Biswa Sarma is likely to secure a second term with a decisive mandate.
A decisive electoral trend appears to be emerging in Assam, with multiple exit polls indicating a strong return to power for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The projections suggest a commanding performance by the ruling party, potentially securing a second consecutive term under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
According to several pollsters, the BJP is expected to dominate the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly with a comfortable majority. Estimates place the party’s seat tally between 85 and 100, significantly above the majority mark. In contrast, the Indian National Congress is projected to trail behind, with predictions ranging from 20 to 35 seats, indicating a challenging electoral outcome for the opposition.
One of the most prominent forecasts comes from Axis My India, which predicts a sweeping victory for the BJP with 88 to 100 seats. The Congress, according to the same survey, is expected to secure between 24 and 36 seats, suggesting a considerable gap between the two principal contenders. Another agency, Poll Diary, has offered even more optimistic projections for the BJP, estimating a range of 86 to 121 seats, while placing Congress between 15 and 25 seats.
Matrize exit polls also reinforce the trend, giving the BJP an estimated 85 to 95 seats, thereby strengthening the narrative of a decisive mandate in favor of the ruling party. The Congress, despite an aggressive and high-energy campaign, is predicted to secure only 25 to 32 seats, reflecting limited electoral gains.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to maintain a lead of approximately 10 percentage points over the Congress-led alliance. This gap underscores the extent of the ruling party’s advantage and signals a consolidation of voter support compared to previous elections.
If these projections hold true, the BJP could improve significantly on its 2021 performance, where it secured 60 seats. The current estimates suggest a potential increase of 20 to 30 seats, marking a substantial electoral expansion. On the other hand, the Congress, which won 29 seats in the previous election, appears to be struggling to maintain its footing.
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The role of regional parties, particularly the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), is also seen as a crucial factor in shaping the electoral landscape. Many exit polls indicate a sharp decline in AIUDF’s influence, which may have contributed to the BJP’s projected surge by consolidating votes that were previously split.
While the Assam elections have largely been viewed as a bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress, the scale of the projected victory suggests a shift toward a more one-sided political landscape. The final results, however, will ultimately determine whether these exit poll predictions translate into an actual electoral sweep.
