BNP’s decisive electoral victory in Bangladesh positions Tarique Rahman as the next Prime Minister, offering India a pragmatic partner in Dhaka. Experts say the outcome blocks radical forces and reshapes New Delhi–Dhaka relations ahead of crucial Farakka treaty talks.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is poised to form the next government in Dhaka after securing an overwhelming mandate in Bangladesh’s 13th general election, a result that experts in India believe offers the most pragmatic pathway for continuing stable relations with New Delhi.
BNP chairman Tarique Rahman is set to take oath as Prime Minister on Saturday, marking the return of a male head of government in Bangladesh after nearly 35 years. The BNP’s landslide performance has significantly altered the country’s political landscape, with the Jamaat-e-Islami trailing in a distant second position.
Leadership Transition and Political Legacy
Tarique Rahman assumed leadership of the BNP following the death of his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, in December last year. He is also the son of former President Ziaur Rahman, the founder of the BNP and a pivotal figure in Bangladesh’s post-independence political history.
Observers note that Rahman’s ascent reflects both political continuity and generational transition within the BNP. While critics once viewed him as less experienced in governance, analysts now describe him as pragmatic and practical, especially in handling sensitive regional dynamics.
Kulbir Krishan, a former member of India’s National Security Advisory Board, remarked that under the present conditions, Tarique Rahman is the likely figure with whom India can effectively coordinate. According to Krishan, Rahman’s leadership offers New Delhi a workable partner at a time when regional security considerations remain delicate.
Relief in New Delhi Over Islamist Setback
Indian security experts have largely welcomed the election outcome, particularly the failure of radical Islamist forces to secure power. Concerns had been growing in New Delhi that a victory for hardline elements could intensify security challenges along the eastern border, including potential Pakistan-sponsored activities.
Women’s rights activist and writer Taslima Nasrin echoed similar sentiments. She described the defeat of Jamaat-e-Islami as positive news, especially given its ideological stance on imposing strict interpretations of Sharia law that critics argue undermine women’s rights. Nasrin clarified that her relief stemmed less from BNP’s victory and more from the rejection of extremist and jihadist forces by voters.
Election Held Amid Political Upheaval
The 13th general election was conducted in the absence of the Awami League, which currently faces a political ban imposed by Bangladesh’s interim administration. The ban stems from allegations involving violence and anti-terrorism charges, alongside ongoing legal proceedings.
The government led by Sheikh Hasina had been widely regarded as friendly toward India. Her administration, which was toppled in August 2024 during a student-led uprising, maintained visible cooperation with New Delhi in areas such as security coordination, economic integration, infrastructure development, and high-level diplomatic engagement.
The absence of the Awami League from the electoral fray significantly reshaped the political contest, effectively positioning the BNP as the dominant mainstream alternative.
Farakka Treaty and Strategic Calculations
One of the immediate diplomatic challenges facing the incoming government will be negotiations over the Farakka water-sharing treaty, which expires later this year. Since the agreement lacks an automatic extension clause, fresh negotiations are required.
Krishan emphasized that any government in Dhaka must engage constructively with India on this and other bilateral issues. Given the BNP’s projected absolute majority in Parliament, Rahman is unlikely to require coalition support, granting him greater flexibility in foreign policy decision-making without internal political pressure.
Historically, despite being considered less overtly amicable toward India compared to the Awami League, the BNP under Khaleda Zia managed diplomatic ties with New Delhi through regular dialogue and stable engagement. Analysts suggest that this precedent indicates the potential for continuity rather than confrontation.
Shifting Alliances and Political Realignment
Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney highlighted the evolving dynamics between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. For years, the two parties functioned as electoral allies, often aligning to counter the Awami League’s dominance. Jamaat’s grassroots mobilization frequently bolstered BNP campaigns.
However, the latest election has strained that relationship. Jamaat has accused the BNP of leveraging state machinery to influence electoral outcomes and has rejected the results. The party now portrays itself as the true representative of the 2024 uprising, arguing that the BNP has replaced one form of centralized rule with another.
In a significant departure from past alignments, the BNP has publicly distanced itself from Jamaat-e-Islami. It has also reiterated accusations regarding Jamaat’s alleged links to Pakistan during Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War—charges that have historically led to bans on the Islamist party. The most recent ban, imposed during the Hasina administration, was later lifted by the interim government following the Awami League’s fall.
A Pragmatic Reset?
With a commanding parliamentary majority and a recalibrated political environment, Tarique Rahman’s government is positioned to shape Bangladesh’s foreign policy with relative autonomy. For India, stability in Dhaka and the absence of hardline Islamist leadership are viewed as strategically reassuring.
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While uncertainties remain—particularly regarding internal governance and democratic consolidation—the BNP’s decisive mandate signals a new chapter in Bangladesh’s political evolution. For now, many in New Delhi see the BNP as the most viable option for sustaining structured, pragmatic engagement between the two neighbors.
