Amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, India secures crude oil stability with support from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Strategic rerouting via the Red Sea and rising Russian imports reduce supply risks. India’s diversified oil sourcing strategy ensures resilience despite escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
As geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, India’s oil security is receiving crucial support from key allies Saudi Arabia and Russia. With Iran’s Parliament recently approving a potential closure of the vital waterway in response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, the global energy market is on edge. For India, a country that imports 5.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil—over 35% of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz—the risk of supply disruptions and soaring freight costs is both real and imminent.
However, a recent report from Yes Securities suggests that India is well-positioned to navigate these uncertainties, thanks to strategic partnerships and a more diversified import portfolio. Chief among these partnerships is Saudi Arabia, which supplies 18–20% of India’s crude oil requirements. Importantly, Saudi Arabia’s ability to reroute oil exports via the Red Sea, using infrastructure like the Petroline-Yanbu corridor, allows continued supply to Indian refiners even if the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily blocked.
“Although some logistical constraints and higher freight costs may persist, Saudi’s diversified export infrastructure, combined with India’s flexible sourcing strategy, reduces the likelihood of a sharp supply shortfall from this key partner,” the Yes Securities report stated.
The Strait of Hormuz is arguably the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with more than a third of global seaborne oil trade passing through its narrow waters. A full blockade could send shockwaves across global markets, tightening tanker availability and spiking oil prices. While India is particularly exposed—with over 35% of crude and 42% of LNG transiting Hormuz—the country’s evolving energy strategy provides a buffer.
Since 2022, India has significantly altered its crude sourcing pattern. Russian oil imports have surged to 2.2 mb/d as of June, surpassing the combined inflows from Middle Eastern nations. These imports enter Indian ports via routes that bypass Hormuz entirely. Additionally, India is increasingly sourcing oil from the United States (0.44 mb/d), West Africa, Brazil, and Latin America—regions whose supply chains also avoid the Persian Gulf.
“Russian imports now exceed those from all Middle Eastern suppliers combined,” noted the report. “Additions from the U.S., Brazil, and others offer alternate routes via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and the Pacific Ocean. India could further ramp up supplies from these regions if tensions escalate.”
While the threat of a complete Hormuz closure looms, the likelihood of such a scenario remains low, according to geopolitical analysts. Iran itself would suffer economically, as 96% of its oil exports move through the very strait it threatens to block. Moreover, a full closure could strain Tehran’s diplomatic ties with major buyers like China and trigger coordinated military responses.
“Experts peg the probability of a full closure as ‘very low’, with likely scenarios involving short-lived disruptions lasting 24 to 72 hours,” the Yes Securities report said. “However, even these temporary disruptions can inject volatility, reduce tanker availability, and add risk premiums to oil and product prices.”
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Indeed, early signs of market reaction are already visible, with a noticeable drop in the number of empty tankers heading toward the Middle East and Gulf regions. The ripple effects of even limited interruptions could tighten the global oil market further.
In this complex and uncertain landscape, India’s evolving crude import strategy—focused on diversification, geopolitical risk mitigation, and logistical flexibility—positions the country to better absorb shocks and maintain energy stability. As long as partners like Saudi Arabia and Russia remain aligned with India’s energy security needs, the nation may weather regional turbulence without facing a severe supply crunch.
