The Northeast recorded over 40 percent deficient June rainfall due to a weakened Southwest monsoon, El Niño and weak Bay of Bengal systems, IMD said. July rainfall is also likely to remain below normal, raising concerns over Kharif agriculture and water resources.
The Northeastern region witnessed a severe shortfall in monsoon rainfall during June, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reporting an overall rainfall deficiency of more than 40 percent across the eight-state region. The weak progress of the Southwest monsoon, the absence of active monsoon troughs over the Bay of Bengal, and the influence of El Niño combined to produce one of the driest starts to the monsoon season in recent years, despite localized episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
According to IMD officials, seven of the eight Northeastern states recorded deficient rainfall during June, the opening month of the four-month Southwest monsoon season that extends from June to September. Sikkim remained the only exception, registering slightly above-normal rainfall with 515.9 mm against its normal average of 438.2 mm.
The latest rainfall assessment highlights the uneven distribution of precipitation across the region, where localized heavy downpours were insufficient to offset widespread rainfall deficits.
An IMD official stated on Wednesday that the monthly average rainfall over India during July 2026 is also expected to remain below normal, with rainfall likely to be less than 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July, based on rainfall data collected between 1971 and 2020, stands at approximately 280.4 mm.
Although certain parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during July, meteorologists cautioned that most parts of the country may continue to experience below-normal precipitation.
The rainfall outlook assumes greater significance because July represents one of the most crucial months for India’s Kharif cropping season. Agricultural scientists noted that sowing activities accelerate during this period, especially in rain-fed farming regions like the Northeast, making consistent monsoon rainfall essential for crop establishment and productivity.
The IMD data revealed particularly alarming rainfall deficits in Meghalaya and Manipur. Meghalaya recorded a rainfall deficiency of 74 percent during June, while Manipur registered an even steeper deficit of 71 percent, placing both states in the “Large Deficient” rainfall category under IMD classification.
A senior official from the Manipur Agriculture Department said the unprecedented rainfall shortage has compounded the state’s existing challenges arising from prolonged ethnic conflict. According to the official, inadequate irrigation infrastructure has further intensified concerns for farmers dependent almost entirely on monsoon rainfall.
Despite these challenges, the official said the Manipur government has implemented security arrangements and other supportive measures to facilitate agricultural operations across both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the ongoing Kharif cultivation season.
The remaining Northeastern states also reported significant rainfall shortages during June.
Nagaland experienced a rainfall deficiency of 56 percent, while Arunachal Pradesh recorded a 44 percent deficit. Assam and Mizoram each registered rainfall deficiencies of 37 percent, and Tripura reported a 36 percent rainfall deficit.
Collectively, these five states averaged around a 42 percent rainfall deficiency during the month.
Under IMD norms, rainfall ranging between 19 percent below normal and 19 percent above normal is classified as normal. Rainfall beyond these thresholds is categorized as deficient, large deficient or excess depending on the magnitude of deviation.
Meteorologists attributed the widespread rainfall deficit primarily to weakened monsoon circulation over the Bay of Bengal and the growing influence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD’s Agartala Meteorological Centre Director Partha Roy explained that El Niño has significantly weakened the Southwest monsoon during the initial phase of the season.
According to Roy, deficient rainfall has been observed across several parts of India because the Southwest monsoon remained weaker than usual during June. He added that El Niño conditions are expected to intensify further over the coming months, potentially continuing to influence rainfall patterns.
Roy also disclosed that Tripura received only 250.3 mm of rainfall during June, representing a deficit of around 41 percent compared to its normal monthly rainfall.
Looking ahead, IMD forecasts indicate that rainfall over Tripura during July is expected to remain below normal to near normal. Additionally, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal throughout the state, increasing the possibility of heat stress for crops and livestock.
The delayed advancement of the Southwest monsoon also contributed to the rainfall deficit.
Normally, the Southwest monsoon reaches the Northeastern region by early June. However, this year the monsoon advanced into substantial parts of the region only on June 7, approximately two days later than its climatological onset date.
Officials from the IMD Meteorological Centres in Guwahati and Agartala confirmed that the monsoon eventually covered the entire Northeastern region by June 10, but its progress remained sluggish during much of June.
Weather experts also expressed concern over the expected evolution of one of the strongest El Niño events on record during the second half of 2026.
Climate scientists warned that a strengthening El Niño could generate hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia while triggering excessive rainfall over parts of North and South America. They also cautioned that the effects of El Niño may become more pronounced because of ongoing global climate change, which has already increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide.
Although the IMD had earlier revised its seasonal outlook for the June-to-September Southwest monsoon—which contributes nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall—meteorologists continue to closely monitor evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Despite the weak beginning to the monsoon season, experts remain cautiously optimistic that the Northeastern region could receive improved rainfall during the peak monsoon months if weather systems over the Bay of Bengal become more active.
Adequate rainfall during the remaining months of the Southwest monsoon is considered essential for the region’s predominantly agrarian economy. A substantial proportion of households across the Northeast rely on rain-fed agriculture, making timely and sufficient monsoon rainfall critical for Kharif cultivation, food production and rural livelihoods.
Improved rainfall in the coming months would also help replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater reserves, enhance ecological health, strengthen water security and reduce the risk of prolonged moisture stress across the region.
| Also Read: Livercon warns of rising liver diseases across India |
With July forecast to remain below normal in many areas, agricultural authorities, disaster management agencies and state governments are expected to closely monitor rainfall trends while preparing contingency measures to mitigate potential impacts on farming, water availability and the regional economy.
