India’s economic growth expected to outpace NSO first advance estimate

India’s economic growth is expected to outpace the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) first advance estimate, reflecting buoyant high‑frequency data since September 2025, led by policy impetus. A report from Morgan Stanley estimated real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent year‑on‑year for Financial Year 2026 — above the NSO’s first advance estimate, which pegged real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent Year-over-year.
The combined impetus from fiscal and monetary policy support, improved purchasing power and labour market outlook is likely to ensure consumption recovery gains more breadth. The report said more broad-based pickup in capital expenditure is expected as improving investor sentiment encourages private investment activity. Domestic demand is likely to drive growth, amidst continued tariff and geopolitics-related global uncertainty. Meanwhile, a recent report from HDFC Bank said India’s tax collections could surge in Financial Year 2027, with gross tax buoyancy rising to 1.1 from a projected 0.64 in Financial Year 2026. It said, The nominal GDP growth is expected at about 10.1 per cent in Financial Year 2027.