The Trump administration’s new H-1B visa restrictions may complicate India-US trade negotiations, warns former US Commerce official Christopher Padilla, citing challenges on skilled worker visas, agriculture, and tariffs as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal meets US officials in Washington.
The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States could face fresh complications after the Trump administration announced new restrictions on H-1B visas, a move described as “impactful” by former US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Christopher Padilla.
On Monday, India’s Commerce and Industry Minister, Piyush Goyal, met senior US officials in Washington to discuss the first tranche of a potential trade agreement. However, the announcement of a $100,000 application fee for each new H-1B visa petition has cast a shadow over the discussions.
Padilla, a veteran of the George W. Bush administration and now Senior Advisor at the global advisory firm Brunswick, stressed that visas for skilled Indian workers have historically been a “priority issue” in bilateral trade dialogues. “I do expect the H-1B issue to have an impact on the trade negotiations. For India, visas for skilled workers have always been a priority issue, and it adds another tricky and sensitive challenge at a delicate time,” he said in an interview with IANS.
Trump Administration Clarifies Policy
President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Friday, introducing the steep new H-1B visa fee. The move initially triggered widespread confusion, with speculation that it might affect current visa holders returning to the United States.
Responding to the concerns, the White House clarified over the weekend that the policy applies only to new visa petitions, not renewals or existing holders. “This is a one-time fee that applies only to the petition. It ONLY applies to new visas, not renewals or current visa holders. It will first apply in the next upcoming lottery cycle,” a senior official told IANS.
White House Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers further defended the measure, saying it was designed to prevent misuse of the system. “President Trump promised to put American workers first, and this action does just that by discouraging companies from spamming the system and driving down wages. It also gives certainty to American businesses who genuinely need high-skilled workers,” she said.
Agriculture and Tariffs Remain Sticking Points
Beyond the H-1B issue, Padilla highlighted agriculture as another difficult area in the trade talks. According to him, no trade deal would be possible without compromises on agricultural market access.
“If there is going to be a trade agreement, there will have to be a compromise on agriculture. It’s possible India could agree to greater market access for US crops like corn, but this would mean easing restrictions on genetically modified crops, as most US corn is GMO. That’s possible, but a heavy lift,” Padilla explained.
He added that India may instead offer “greater access” in less sensitive areas such as nuts, seed oils, and specialty crops. However, he cautioned that the United States may need to “moderate its demands on dairy access,” an especially sensitive issue for Indian negotiators.
Padilla also pointed to Washington’s additional 25 per cent tariffs on India for buying Russian oil as “probably the most difficult issue” in the talks. “It’s possible that a deal is reached to reduce reciprocal tariffs while the 25 per cent levy over Russian energy purchases remains in place. But for India, this is seen as a matter of sovereignty and independent foreign policy,” he noted.
Trade Talks Clouded by Uncertainty
Padilla concluded that unpredictability remains the defining feature of Trump-era trade negotiations. “The only certainty is uncertainty. If you had told me in January that by September we’d have 50 per cent tariffs on India while moving to negotiate a trade deal with China, I would have assumed you were mistaken. But here we are,” he said.
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As Goyal continues talks with senior US officials, the combination of visa restrictions, agricultural disputes, and tariff battles signals a complicated road ahead for India-US trade relations. While both sides may seek progress, the H-1B visa move has undeniably added a new layer of complexity to already delicate negotiations.
