Gen Zaman recalls what happened to Pakistan in the 1980s when, under the guise of fighting the Soviets, the country became a staging ground for foreign interests.
Strategic autonomy is often described as the ability of a nation to pursue its own national interest and preferred foreign policy without being constrained by other countries.
It can be argued that India has pursued the policy of strategic autonomy ever since its independence during the bipolar cold war (1947-1991), unipolar times (1991-2008) and now in the multi-polar era.
But by 2025 things are changing fast and may change further.
In South Asian context of course, the India-Pakistan conflict is there for everyone to see and debate.
But what is a new emerging situation and context is now Bangladesh.
“The Rakhine Corridor is quietly turning into one of the most consequential geopolitical flashpoints in our region right now. It’s being pitched as a humanitarian lifeline to northern Rakhine, which is now largely under the control of the Arakan Army. But behind the smokescreen of aid, what’s really at stake is strategic access and a looming great power contest between the US and China, with Bangladesh caught squarely in the middle,” says Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (Retd).
Of course, the Americans are pushing for the corridor under humanitarian pretexts. I posed him a few questions on the matter.
A keen observer of strategic things having served as Army Commanderof three regions Eastern Command, South Western Command and Central Command, General Krishna says:
“Obviously the US is securing influence and possibly even a semi-permanent presence near the Bay of Bengal. Muhammad Yunus, heading the interim civilian government in Bangladesh, has signalled openness to the corridor under Western pressure, but this has put him at odds with the Bangladesh Army, particularly General Waqar-uz-Zaman”.
The typical interesting part of Gen Krishna’s analysis is that:
“Gen Zaman sees through it. He’s drawing parallels with what happened to Pakistan in the 1980s when, under the guise of fighting the Soviets, the country became a staging ground for foreign interests. The result was long-term instability, foreign interference and blowback that reshaped Pakistan’s politics forever.”
We may understand that way Gen Zaman is showing “maturity” and he doesn’t want Bangladesh to be the “next lab rat”.
Zaman says he is opposed to the “bloody corridor” and he has started calling for elections by December 2025.
This disturbs the power equilibrium signalling Bangladesh army’s discomfort with the current interim civilian arrangement. This may obviously bring us to legitimate queries – how should India react and how is China reacting.
Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd) sums up the paradox quite well.
“On the Rakhine corridor issue, New Delhi may actually find itself in silent alignment with Beijing. This is a case of diplomatic billiards. Supporting Waqar Zaman’s resistance to the corridor, even informally, helps India in more ways than one,” he says.
I asked him to elaborate things further and he maintained:
“It keeps Bangladesh in check, prevents a US beachhead and may even open the door for India to engage directly with groups like the Arakan Army or the Chin rebels”.
He has a point. The engagement with Arakans is perhaps already happening quietly in Mizoram.
It is understood that New Delhi has built goodwill by offering non-lethal support and diplomacy rather than taking sides in the broader Myanmar conflict.
On Arjuna’s dilemma to fight his own cousins and other near and dear ones, External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar once said it was like ‘strategic constraints’ as often discussed in the contemporary setting.
Why are we referring to this?
This is only to underline that predicaments often would haunt in geo-strategic thinking.
Quoting Lt Gen Abhay Krishna,retd may be relevant yet again.
“The Rakhine Corridor is in effect far more than a simple humanitarian channel. It’s now a test case for how new proxy conflicts could play out in South Asia with humanitarianism as the cover and strategic encirclement as the real game”.
Bangladesh’s military is trying to avoid walking straight into a trap and smartly so.
What should India do notwithstanding the fact India is part of the Quad.
Well, if we go by Lt Gen Krishna’s viewpoint.
“The Govt of India may find that its interests are best served by staying out of the American orbit on this one.”
But during the course of interaction, the former military commander also pointed out a few things which we often tend to ignore.
“Please keep it in mind that the US isn’t working in a vacuum. China, which backs the Myanmar junta and maintains ties with various ethnic groups including the Arakan Army is watching this corridor idea with deep suspicion”.
Importantly, for Beijing, the Rakhine corridor represents a direct challenge to its strategic depth in Myanmar and the region.
“If US gains a foothold in northern Rakhine via Bangladesh, it changes the calculus for both China and India,” says the former Army Commander and a keen follower of unfolding geo-politics and security scenario.
He further explains:
“This is where things get even more interesting. India, on paper, should be aligned with the US. But in practice, Delhi shares China’s apprehensions about the corridor. India has major stakes in the Kaladan project. It needs southern Rakhine to stay stable and doesn’t want the Americans getting too close to its northeast.”
There is yet another angle and that’s something the Americans are trying to tell Dhaka – this corridor would also elevate Bangladesh’s strategic clout at a time when India or even China want to quietly “box it in”.
Often in the past, global crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict had provided a bunch of neo opportunities to Indian diplomacy to shape a totally new road map for itself – where it will highlight its own vision and need not side blindly either democracies of the American’s school or the strong and steady leadership of Russia.
“Rising sea levels, cyclones and resultant dwindling farmlands have over the years pushed over a crore of Bangladeshis towards Indian shores. The bigger challenge is that this ‘humanitarian tragedy is being very cleverly weaponised,” says the General.
He also adds: “Extremist networks, like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) have been exploiting the riverine Sundarbans, embedding sleeper cells. and smuggling arms under the guise of migration.We, therefore, need to be proactive to prevail over these developments.”
India needs to be more than just cautious.
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