Exit polls predict BJP leading West Bengal Assembly elections with majority edge, while one survey shows Mamata Banerjee retaining power, creating uncertainty in a high-stakes political battle marked by strong voter turnout and intense BJP versus TMC contest.
Uncertainty over the outcome of the West Bengal Assembly elections appears to be easing as multiple exit polls suggest a clear trend emerging in one of India’s most closely watched political battles. With voting concluded across phases marked by high turnout, projections indicate a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), although one forecast still points to a possible victory for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her party.
Out of four major exit polls released after polling ended, three agencies have projected the BJP ahead of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), hinting at a potential shift in power in the 294-member Assembly. These projections, if reflected in actual results, could mark a significant political breakthrough for the BJP in a state long dominated by regional forces.
According to the Matrize exit poll, the BJP is expected to secure between 146 and 161 seats, placing it near or above the majority mark of 148. The TMC is projected to win between 125 and 160 seats, suggesting a competitive but potentially losing position for the incumbent party. Smaller parties and independents are expected to remain marginal, securing only 6 to 10 seats.
Another pollster, P-Marq, has forecast an even stronger performance for the BJP, projecting the party could win up to 175 seats, comfortably crossing the majority threshold on its own. In this scenario, the TMC is estimated to secure between 118 and 138 seats, further reinforcing the narrative of a BJP surge. Once again, other parties, including the Congress and Left alliance, are expected to perform poorly, failing to make any substantial impact.
Poll Diary, a third agency, has also placed the BJP ahead, projecting a tally between 142 and 171 seats. The TMC, according to this poll, may secure between 99 and 127 seats, indicating a sharper decline compared to previous elections. Other parties are projected to win around 5 to 10 seats, underlining the increasingly bipolar nature of the contest.
In contrast, Peoples Pulse, the only exit poll diverging from this trend, has predicted a decisive victory for the TMC. It estimates that the ruling party could win between 177 and 187 seats, comfortably retaining power for a fourth consecutive term under Mamata Banerjee. The BJP, in this projection, is expected to secure between 95 and 100 seats, significantly below the majority mark.
The contrasting predictions highlight the unpredictability that has characterized the West Bengal elections, where political stakes have been exceptionally high. The state has witnessed an intense and often polarised campaign, with both the BJP and TMC investing heavily in outreach, messaging, and mobilisation.
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Voter turnout has also been notably high, reflecting strong public engagement in the electoral process. The first phase recorded an impressive turnout of approximately 93 percent, while the second phase saw nearly 90 percent voting by the evening. Such high participation levels have added another layer of complexity to forecasting outcomes, as they can influence results in unexpected ways.
The central question throughout the campaign has been whether the BJP could break through the entrenched support base of Mamata Banerjee and her party, or whether the TMC would once again demonstrate its resilience in the face of a formidable challenge. The exit polls suggest that the BJP may have made significant inroads, but the final verdict will only be clear once the votes are counted.
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As the state awaits the official results, political observers caution that exit polls are not always accurate and should be interpreted with care. Nonetheless, the current projections point to a closely fought contest that could reshape the political landscape of West Bengal.
