Bangladesh faces escalating violence after a student leader’s killing, with experts warning of managed chaos aimed at delaying elections and fuelling anti-India sentiment amid political instability, radical mobilisation, and growing regional security concerns.
Bangladesh appears to be standing at a critical crossroads as fresh violence erupts following the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent leader associated with last year’s student-led uprising. While official investigations into the murder are still underway, Indian intelligence agencies believe the killing bears the signs of an internal power struggle rather than foreign involvement.
The assassination triggered immediate unrest in Dhaka and other key locations, with violence spreading rapidly and indiscriminately. Pro-India individuals, Hindu communities, neutral media outlets, and supporters of the Awami League emerged as primary targets. Party offices, homes, and symbols linked to the former ruling establishment were vandalised or set ablaze, indicating a well-orchestrated pattern rather than spontaneous public outrage.
Security analysts observing the unfolding events say the sequence and coordination of violence point toward a larger political strategy. According to officials, two clear objectives are being pursued simultaneously: delaying the national elections and deliberately manufacturing anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh.
Current opinion polls suggest a tightening political race, with Jamaat-e-Islami moving closer to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Political experts believe that if elections are held transparently and on schedule, the BNP is likely to emerge as the single largest political force. This scenario, however, is unacceptable to both Jamaat-e-Islami, which is widely viewed by Indian agencies as operating under the influence of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and interim government chief Muhammad Yunus.
Following the student uprising that led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the National Citizens Party (NCP) was formed by the very students who spearheaded the protests. Despite its origins, the NCP has struggled to build grassroots support and now faces political irrelevance in a free and fair electoral contest. Sources indicate that Yunus openly backs the NCP, giving him a strong incentive to delay elections and allow the party additional time to gain political traction.
An intelligence official stated that a calculated narrative is now being promoted across Bangladesh suggesting that the country is not secure enough to conduct elections. This narrative not only benefits the interim administration but also provides external actors greater room to interfere in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. The longer the political uncertainty persists, the easier it becomes for radical groups to expand their influence.
The killing of Hadi has also been weaponised to inflame public sentiment against India. Although Hadi was openly critical of India throughout his political career, attempts are being made to portray his murder as an act carried out by pro-India forces. Officials warn that such claims are being spread deliberately to provoke anger and create a common external enemy.
This tactic, analysts say, follows a familiar pattern. When public anger is redirected toward a foreign country, radical groups find it easier to mobilise crowds, justify violence, and weaken democratic institutions. Recent incidents provide troubling evidence of this strategy in action.
In Chattogram, stone pelting was reported at the Indian Deputy High Commission and the official residence. Videos circulating online show organised groups, rather than random mobs, leading the attacks. In Dhaka, radical elements attempted to march toward the Indian High Commission, breaking through police barricades while raising aggressive slogans and issuing direct threats. Although police eventually intervened, officials noted a delayed and restrained response.
Indian agencies have also observed that law enforcement remained conspicuously inactive in several violence-prone zones. This selective enforcement has raised serious questions about whether the unrest is being institutionally managed rather than forcefully contained.
From New Delhi’s perspective, instability in a neighbouring country carries serious national security implications. Bangladesh has long been a key partner in regional security, trade, and counter-terrorism cooperation. A prolonged period of unrest, coupled with a rising tide of anti-India propaganda, threatens to undermine years of diplomatic progress.
Officials stress that India will now be required to counter a false and dangerous narrative that seeks to portray it as the focal point of Bangladesh’s internal turmoil. They caution that allowing such misinformation to spread unchecked could have long-term consequences for regional stability.
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As Bangladesh navigates this volatile phase, the coming weeks will be crucial. Whether elections proceed as scheduled or are postponed under the pretext of instability may determine not only the country’s democratic future but also the trajectory of its relations with India and the broader South Asian region.
