BNP leader Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh marks a new political shift. With Awami League barred, India eyes renewed ties with BNP as Dhaka distances itself from Pakistan and Jamaat, signaling a pragmatic turn in regional diplomacy.
After 26 years of self-exile in London, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman has announced his decision to return home and contest the upcoming national elections — a move that could reshape Bangladesh’s political and diplomatic landscape. The 58-year-old leader, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is widely seen as the BNP’s candidate for the top post should his party secure victory in the elections expected by February next year.
The announcement of Rahman’s return marks a critical turning point in Bangladeshi politics. With the Awami League barred from contesting, all indications point toward a BNP-led government. Nobel laureate and caretaker chief advisor Muhammad Yunus has already confirmed that the electoral roadmap will soon be formalized.
India Keeps a Close Watch
India is following the developments in Dhaka closely. New Delhi is aware that a BNP comeback could redefine the bilateral equation that has often swung between cooperation and confrontation. During the BNP’s last tenure (2001–2006), relations soured over border security concerns and allegations that Dhaka harboured anti-India militant groups. The 2004 Chattogram arms haul, involving ten truckloads of weapons allegedly destined for insurgents in India’s northeast, had further deepened mistrust.
However, Indian officials now say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has insisted on continued engagement with Bangladesh, regardless of the political transition. New Delhi has already begun quiet diplomatic outreach, ensuring that relations are not derailed amid the changing power equations in Dhaka. Modi met caretaker leader Yunus on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok earlier this year — a clear signal that India seeks stability over uncertainty.
Jamaat Factor and Diplomatic Stalemate
The current interim government’s proximity to Jamaat-e-Islami, an organisation viewed as extremist by India, has made diplomatic engagement challenging. According to sources, Jamaat remains heavily influenced by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has historically used Bangladesh as a strategic lever against India. As a result, formal talks have often hit a diplomatic dead end.
New Delhi, however, is now recalibrating its approach. With BNP emerging as the likely successor to the interim regime, Indian policymakers see an opportunity to build a pragmatic relationship with Rahman’s leadership — one based on mutual security and economic interests rather than ideological fault lines.
A Mature Tarique Rahman?
Despite India’s past reservations, there is growing optimism that Tarique Rahman may pursue a more balanced foreign policy. In 2013, India had accused Rahman of maintaining links with fundamentalist elements and the ISI. But analysts suggest that two decades in exile may have made him politically more astute. Observers believe he now recognises that Bangladesh’s stability and prosperity depend more on India’s partnership than on Pakistan’s rhetoric.
Rahman’s future government would be under domestic pressure to revive the economy, attract investment, and ensure security — all of which align more closely with India’s regional interests. The lessons from Pakistan’s ongoing economic collapse, the turmoil in Balochistan, and the unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir could serve as powerful reminders for Dhaka’s policymakers of what overreliance on Islamabad can bring.
BNP’s Diplomatic Reorientation
India’s optimism has been further boosted by the BNP’s decision to distance itself from Jamaat-e-Islami. This strategic shift sends a strong signal of moderation and a willingness to rebuild bridges with New Delhi.
A key moment came in September last year, when BNP General Secretary Fakhrul Islam Alamgir met Indian High Commissioner Pranay Varma in Dhaka. Fakhrul assured that Bangladesh under BNP would never allow its territory to be used against India’s security interests. Following this, Prime Minister Modi extended warm wishes to Muhammad Yunus after he assumed office, reaffirming India’s commitment to maintaining strong ties.
Despite attempts by radical elements within Bangladesh to provoke anti-India sentiment, mainstream BNP leaders now acknowledge that India remains the most reliable and influential regional partner. The ongoing crisis, both economic and political, has made it clear that only through cooperation with India can Bangladesh ensure stability, trade growth, and energy security.
India — Not Pakistan — the Rational Partner
The BNP leadership now seems united in recognising that a partnership with India offers a path to sustainable development, while Pakistan’s internal chaos and economic fragility present no viable model. The people of Bangladesh, weary of uncertainty and political violence, want peace, growth, and a leadership that puts national interest first.
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As the 2026 election cycle nears, one thing is becoming evident: for Tarique Rahman and the BNP, India now appears a better bet than a failed Pakistan.
