India’s sudden agreement to a ceasefire with Pakistan has raised several questions, especially given the context of India’s dominant military position. Despite speculation about foreign mediation, India has maintained that the stoppage of military actions resulted from direct communication between the military heads of both countries. This development has not only highlighted the tactical shifts in the region but also exposed the intricate dynamics of nuclear risk and international diplomacy.
The most pressing question remains: Why did India, at the peak of military success, agree to pause hostilities? Traditionally, ceasefires are called when both parties reach a stalemate or mutual exhaustion. However, in this case, Indian forces were decisively overwhelming Pakistani positions, targeting key airbases and significantly impairing Pakistan’s military infrastructure.
In wartime situations, official briefings are carefully thought out, with a significant portion of information withheld for various reasons, which is understandable. This time was also no exception.
One plausible explanation surfaced through a New York Times report, which, while brief, hinted at the potential risk of nuclear escalation. During Operation Sindoor-2, India’s precision strikes, particularly targeting the Noor Khan airbase, raised alarm. This airbase, known to house nuclear warheads, became a focal point when Indian SCALP missiles and HAMMER bombs reportedly damaged critical facilities. The speculation of a radioactive leak from a possible hit on a nuclear facility intensified the crisis.
Senior Strategic analysts of the RAND corporation, Derek Grossman, has pointed out that the destruction of Noor Khan airbase — likely the largest nuclear warhead storage facility in Pakistan — created a scenario where Pakistan’s nuclear command and control were perceived to be at risk. More alarmingly, in the chaos and with Pakistan’s nuclear command and control system compromised, another grave concern emerged: in the chaos, some nuclear devices might fall into the hands of domestic terrorists, like the TTP or the Taliban both of which have long pursued nuclear capabilities.
( Prime Minister Nrendra Modi’s statement that Pakistan’s Nuclear Blackmail won’t work any more also in a way brings to mind that Pakistan’s Nuclear Command and Control had been severely affected)
Amid this, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sought assistance from the U.S. President Donald Trump, emphasizing the catastrophic risk, especially considering the radioactive threat at Noor Khan. Trump, known for his assertive diplomatic style, directly approached Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, urging a de-escalation to prevent nuclear fallout and terrorist exploitation.
Trump’s involvement was crucial but contentious. Initially, Trump directly contacted Modi, emphasizing the global security risk posed by a potential nuclear fallout or terrorist access to nuclear devices. However, Modi made it clear that India would not accept any mediation or interference in its sovereign military decisions. Instead, India laid out specific conditions:
- Direct Communication Only: India insisted that any ceasefire request must come directly from Pakistan, not through a third-party mediator, including the U.S.
- No Formal Ceasefire Declaration: India deliberately refrained from labeling the pause in hostilities as a ‘ceasefire’ to avoid creating a binding long-term agreement, which would imply concessions or status quo maintenance.
- Retaliation Policy Remains Intact: India maintained that any terrorist activity within its territory during the temporary cessation of military actions would be considered an act of war, justifying an immediate military response.
- Existing Measures Remain Unaffected: All decisions related to the Indus Waters Treaty, visa policies, and trade restrictions would continue without any concessions to Pakistan.
Trump conveyed India’s stance to Pakistan, making it clear that the ceasefire was a temporary and tactical pause rather than a diplomatic concession. Upon understanding India’s firm position, Pakistani officials, including DGMO Major General Kashif Abdullah, directly contacted Indian DGMO Lt. Gen. Rajiv Ghai, formally requesting an end to military actions.
However, Trump complicated matters by prematurely tweeting about his successful mediation, taking credit before India could properly communicate the situation. This led to widespread confusion, with Trump appearing to be the decisive figure in India’s decision. His unexpected declaration caused confusion, as India had not yet issued an official statement. Consequently, Trump’s claim of brokering peace overshadowed India’s carefully structured diplomatic stance.
India’s decision to agree to a temporary ceasefire reflects not a strategic retreat but a calculated move to avert nuclear escalation and manage international perception. The episode underscores the intricate balance between military strategy and diplomatic optics in a nuclear-armed conflict zone. Despite Trump’s hasty proclamation, the real story lies in India’s careful manoeuvring to maintain control while mitigating unprecedented risks.
|Also Read : PM Modi: Terrorism will no longer be shielded by Pakistan’s nuclear threat |
OPERATION SINDOOR
Consequent to the ceasefire and airspace violations on night of 10-11 May 2025, #GeneralUpendraDwivedi, #COAS reviewed the security situation with the Army Commanders of the Western Borders.
The #COAS has granted full authority to the Army Commanders for… pic.twitter.com/kyWGwePqN0
— ADG PI – INDIAN ARMY (@adgpi) May 11, 2025
