India’s economy expected to grow at 7.6% in current fiscal, exceeding govt’s 7.4% estimate: Morgan Stanley

India’s economic growth is expected to outpace the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) first advance estimate, reflecting buoyant high‑frequency data since September 2025, led by policy impetus. A report from Morgan Stanley estimated real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent year‑on‑year for Financial Year 2026 — above the NSO’s first advance estimate, which pegged real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent Year-over-year.
The combined impetus from fiscal and monetary policy support, improved purchasing power and labour market outlook is likely to ensure consumption recovery gains more breadth. The report said more broad-based pickup in capital expenditure is expected as improving investor sentiment encourages private investment activity. Domestic demand is likely to drive growth, amidst continued tariff and geopolitics-related global uncertainty. Meanwhile, a recent report from HDFC Bank said India’s tax collections could surge in Financial Year 2027, with gross tax buoyancy rising to 1.1 from a projected 0.64 in Financial Year 2026. It said, The nominal GDP growth is expected at about 10.1 per cent in Financial Year 2027.