IN TRIPURA TMC IS MISSING MANY THINGS : LOCAL LEADERS, MUSLIM VOTES, TRIBAL SEATS WITH ITS OUTSIDER- INSIDER NARRATIVE TAKING NEW MEANING
In competitive politics there is always time and again a new entrant in electoral fight who will tend to encroach into the space left open by the opposition parties and seek to sail on the expected anti-incumbency mood against the ruling party. That is a common phenomenon in any political milieu. So is the common fact that the new entrant will get a strange bed fellow for electoral tie up. In that sense West Bengal based Trinamool Congress’ attempt to make foray into Tripura politics is not unexpected. After Trinamool Congress victory in the West Bengal assembly elections, and in the wake of the victory the resultant hope of Mamata Banerjee to lead the country as Prime Minister, her attempt to join the Tripura politics was on the card. So far, the TMC remains only a West Bengal based party and she needs to expand her footprints in her way up to Delhi.
Traditionally, Tripura politics has always been a bi-polar exercise. In the past it was Congress versus Left Front, now BJP versus Left Front. The TMC is evidently hopeful of squeezing the Left Front out from whatever space it has been left with, or to go for some understanding with it against the common enemy, BJP. Strange bed fellows are always there and no one can outright reject this possibility, though such a scenario will be definitely designed by the outcome of the success or failure of Mamata’s national level alliance bids. For the Left front there will not be much thought, if they can tie up with Furfura Sharif huzurr ISF leader Abbas Siddiqui in West Bengal, they can do it for the TMC here too. The Marxists are actually left with not much option anyway either.
The Congress is a squabble ridden rag tag party here and is virtually not in a position to make much of a difference in the coming 17 months—when Tripura will go to polls, though an alliance with the TMC cannot be ruled altogether , provided Sonia Gandhi gives a go ahead keeping in mind national politics.
But for Trinamool Congress, Tripura is altogether a different field in comparison to West Bengal. Neither many of the key factors that helped the TMC retain power in West Bengal, nor the leaders who can consolidate the base to a decisive level at ground are readily available here.
In West Bengal Muslim factor played the main role in favour the TMC. Muslims remained wholeheartedly for the TMC in West Bengal where in the 2019 Parliamentary polls 70 per cent of the total Muslim electorates cast their votes in favour of the party. In the 2021 Assembly elections it increased by 75 per cent. This is a determining sway keeping in mind Muslim population in West Bengal is about 30 per cent, and growing. There are some other factors like absence of an image for Chief Ministerial position or distribution of nominations to new entrant –some without any political commitment or obligations.
In Tripura this determining Muslim vote plank is simply missing considering the 3-5 per cent muslim population in the state. Their decisive polling is also limited to at the most at three or four constituencies. As such there is missing the crucial fault line too through which theTMC may push forward, or at least start off .
There is one factor that goes strongly against the TMC- the tribal votes, or for that matter, tribal parties. As the situation stands today the TMC has to start its politics in Tripura without 20 ST reserved seats in 60 member assembly. The party in absence of any organization in the ST reserved seats will have to depend on a regional party – either the TPIRA Motha, or the IPFT- both on the other hand have their own political calculations and agenda.
The TMC is largely considered as a Bengali dominated party , led be West Bengal Bengalis. Their slogan ‘Bangla Banglar meye ke chay’ and also the tacit and indirect ‘outsider- insider’ card or for that much touted ‘Biswa Bangla’ concept are not lost with the tribal voters here and in the ultimate analysis they will be considered a reflection of ‘Cultural and political Bengali hegemony’- which is going to give a negative political narrative in tribal political psyche. The undercurrent of sentiment among the tribals that they were always ‘deprived’ by the Bengali politicians- administration’ has always been there and is hard to ignore. This sentiment has time and again has been expressed in political statements of the regional parties. It is now all the more eloquent, after Pradyot Kishore took the rein and used it to sway the voters for TIPRA Motha’s success in TTAADC polls. It is at this moment ‘Tripura Didi kei chay cut outs in front of Polo Towers Hotel are enough to ring an alarming bell for them- and also for many Bengalis with strong sense of pride of Tripura too.
The tribal politics at present spearheaded by the TIPRA Motha, and to an extent theIPFT, will definitely have strong reluctance to accept such a ‘brand Bengali’ politics in Tripura. Emergence of the TMC in Tripura politics will thus mean one more spanner in their cherished idea of Greater Tipraland or Tipraland. In fact, Abhishek Banerjee in his first press conference here virtually ruled out support to any ‘divisive politics’. Now Kunal Ghosh may be trying hard to soften and then mould Pradyot Kishore Debbarman but only future can say how much he will succeed. Pradyot Kishore is already riding the tiger with an absurd demand of Greater Tipraland, and he will be hard pressed and virtually without any option—but to ride on as long as possible. He just cannot come down from it.
In the rest of 40 seats—where the TMC politics will get confined to, the main question that arises for the TMC is –who will lead?
Who is the acceptable leader at state level capable of not only giving a momentum to the TMC politics in the state , but also consolidate the anti-incumbency factors and guide them to the EVM ?
Who is the ideology driven local leader standing tall to give impetus to the new political exercise with innovative ideas , convincingly ?
Subal Bhowmik might have been a good organizer but over the years for his restive politics and turning the coat time and again and switching allegiance with a drop of a hat reduced his reliability and acceptability to a great extent. He could not do it in Congress or with his own party Grameen Congress . He could not accept Biplab Kumar Deb’s leadership, it is now anybody’s guess how much he will accept the Kolkata based leaders’ guidance, even if he is made the state unit chief. It is also seriously doubtful how much impact former MLA Prakash Das will be able to make in his own Bamutia constituency itself. Ashish Singha is largely an unknown face in the state. Whether he is already peeved at the away Bhowmik and others are given importance is , however, a different story.
Apparently, till date it was only the West Bengal TMC leaders who are leading in Tripura. They fly down here, get involved in some political exercise—mostly reactive , make statements and then return home . The local leaders like Subal Bhowmik et al play a second fiddle to their tune.
Interestingly, Trinamool Congress politics here has started with straight confrontation without any organization in place at all. Till date no state or local unit of the party was formed. When the West Bengal leaders come, some disgruntled locals join them and for some hours they get involved in political sloganeering and after the West Bengal leaders go back they also thin out and become faceless. Since there is no leader, no guideline, they have nothing to do.
It is, indeed, a key problem for the TMC – the absence of leaders. So far, none is in the canvass who is capable of combating the BJP from the frontline and put up a fight to oust it from the power within next 17 months. And time is running out.
Abhishek Banerjee might be saying that they are determined and that they would be coming here, but where is the home grown political force ? And, how far the people of Tripura will accept the political diktat of the Kolkatan politicians in all the matters that need local understanding, touch and reach? Broad political gains and goals are alright, but leaders from Kolkata on their own cannot really run the show for long and certainly not as the election comes nearer. A guest is a guest.
The TMC’s past record in Tripura is also not at all encouraging. Neither Mamata Banerjee ever raised Tripura issues in the Parliament when the state was burning with militancy, nor did she give importance to the Tripura unit or its leaders here—almost all of them are now holding senior positions in the BJP. She was happy with her West Bengal cause only. Now, it was for political her ambition that she seemed to have attached some importance in Tripura politics. It is her compulsions, not exactly the conviction.
But, then to oust a political power is in many considerations different and difficult than to retain the power by a political party which has its own administrative machinery as well as a solid political network under its command.
There were strong anti-incumbency winds against the Left Front for decades in Tripura. It thickened over the years. But no political party could consolidate it to unseat the Marxists. It was when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister and BJP as a mighty national party started all guns blazing , using all sorts of political manoeuvring , sending back an RSS trained Biplab Kumar Deb, prabhari Sunil Deodhar et al to Tripura, and then bringing almost all strong opposition leaders under one umbrella, things started changing. They were directly guided by Amit Shah and frequently by Narendra Modi himself. All senior cabinet ministers also used their cards and official documents to puncture the Left Front government’s claims. Besides, there was a face who was largely projected as next Chief Minister – Biplab Kumar Deb. All worked together to move out the behemoth called Left Front government.
For TMC, all these are absent.
