Population management is a very tricky issue in the context of Indian state with so much of a diversified society in terms of geography, religion, culture, art and music and socio-economic profile of people. The population of the country in April 2022 has crossed 140 crore. However, the growth rate has started tapering as the average annual exponential growth in population declined from 2.22% in 1971-81 to 2.11% in 1981-91, 1.8% in 1991-2001 and only 1.58% in 2001-2011 periods. The annual population growth in 2020 has shown remarkable decline to 0.099 percentage, but is still higher than China and it is expected that in 2026 it will surpass China when both countries will have 146 crore population.
While dealing with issues in the context of national securities like food, water, military and now climatic and ecological security the experts gleefully ignore the role of demographic security. In a diverse country like India we can ignore it at our own peril. Infiltration of foreigners is aided and abetted by interested insiders including the corrupt officials posted to man the borders and those who help in procurement of documents for citizenships etc. The groups interested in bringing foreigners start in a planned manner with reports of hawala money flowing in the country. In the past some of the states like Assam and Tripura had been the victims of the planned demographic changes which gave rise to insurgency in these states and in the North-East. The problem of ethnic conflict has assumed serious proportions in Assam and other states in the Northeast. Population in Assam has increased from 80 lakh in 1951 to 2.6crore in 2001 and now in 2021 to 3.6 crore. The decadal growth of Muslims increased from 34.5 per cent in the previous decade to 36 per cent in 2001. The growth of infiltration of foreigners has close connection with national security especially in border areas. The demographic changes in Assam as a result of external and internal migrations have brought with them religious, ethnic and linguistic conflicts resulting in terrorism.
Similarly, the inflow of Hindu Bengali migrants from Bangladesh into Tripura after the 1971 wars has completely changed the population ratio of the state. The tribal population was reduced to minority to little over 30 % now. This led to insurgency and ethnic and linguistic tension in Tripura for almost three decades. However, in case of Tripura it has an historical legacy as the area of the Tripura Maharaja before partition was much more and consisted of Sylhet and Bengali intelligentsias of all the religions enjoyed the patronage of the tribal King.
According to the reliable sources and ground situation as it prevails, the Uttarakhand is going to be engulfed in demographic conflict as the population of people of a particular religion from outside has been settling in the states in large numbers during last 7 to 8 years. It is a serious concern for the security agencies and the local administration and intelligence has failed miserably in detecting the settlements especially along the Nepal and China border. The local leaders of both the national parties are either not bothered or encourage this due to vote bank politics and the corrupt officials help them for a bribe to get documents. A section of Nepalese have been creating problems for the national security of India for past few years but now are facing the same problem of infiltration/ settlement of people of a particular religion in the areas bordering India in Pithoragarh and other bordering districts; as the local Nepali Gorkhas from border areas are migrating from hills in search of jobs. The Census report released by Nepalese government on 26th January 2022 reveals that along the Pithoragarh border in Nepal side there has been a decline of Gorakha population by 18,860. In ‘Kailalai’ and ‘Kanchanpur’ districts of Nepal bordering India the rise in growth is very high compared to other hill districts. The population of Kailali district increased by 30 percent.
It is alleged that the people of a particular religion are creating a corridor along Bihar, Nepal, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi. A large numbers of people are being settled in the name of refugees and it is feared that the Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence may be behind this game to disturb the demographic pattern. A large number of religious structures and educational institutions are coming up in Uttarakhand and other areas and if government does not ascertain the cause of such settlements it will pose a serious threat to local cultural integrity and national security.
In Uttarakhand already the geological features have disturbed so much due to lopsided development and population increase beyond the carrying capacity of hills as in several locations the capacity has crossed its optimum level. Further, the local people have a separate cultural and linguistic identity and the way the people from other states of all religions are buying lands in the hills its cultural identity is under threat and because of this the local people have been agitating for enactment of a land transfer law on the pattern of Himachal Pradesh which limits the settlement and purchase of land. Uttarakhand ecology is very critical from the point of view of conservation of river systems and downstream socio-economic ecosystem. One voluntary organization SDC Foundation had in the month of January 2022, published a report from the secondary data of election Commission of India which shows a whopping increase of 30 to 43 % of voters (from 63,77,314 lakh electors in 2012 assembly elections to 82,66,644 lakh in 2022) in Uttarakhand during past ten years 2011 to 2022. In Dehradun, Nainital, Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar the increase in 36 constituencies is 37 % with Udham Singh Nagar being the highest at 43%. In ‘Dharampur’ constituency in Dehradun District there has been steep 70% increase. Compared to this the increase in other states was much less like 18% in UP, Goa 13%, Manipur 14%. In Punjab also there is unusual increase of voters.
The Central and State governments as well as all political parties must think about the possible ways to maintain the integrity of Indian population. The Parliament must think of enacting a strong Act on foreigners which should ‘interalia’ provide for immediate deportation of foreigners by strengthening the intelligence and if any foreigner has obtained Indian citizenship his citizenship must be cancelled with simultaneous punishment for officials who were instrumental in government organization for helping procure documents used to obtain Indian citizenship and get other benefits. The Border Security Force and other border management units should be held squarely responsible for prevention of infiltration. India is a secular country and all its resources are meant for all its citizens and not for foreigners.
(The writer is Chairman of Centre for Resources Management and Environment)
