Five Northeast states recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall during June and July despite widespread floods, IMD data revealed. Weak monsoon systems, El Nino influence, and rainfall deficits have raised concerns over Kharif agriculture, water resources, and the remaining Southwest Monsoon season across the region.
Despite experiencing devastating floods, landslides, and heavy downpours in several districts during July, five of the eight Northeastern states have recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall during the first two months of the Southwest Monsoon season, according to the latest data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The unusual weather pattern has highlighted the growing impact of erratic climate conditions, weak monsoon systems, and the increasing influence of El Nino on India’s rainfall distribution.
The IMD’s rainfall analysis for June and July revealed that the Northeast experienced a paradoxical situation where localized spells of intense rainfall caused widespread flooding and landslides, while the overall seasonal rainfall remained significantly below normal across several states. Officials explained that the uneven distribution of rainfall resulted from weak rain-bearing weather systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs, and changing atmospheric conditions linked to El Nino.
According to IMD data, seven of the eight Northeastern states, excluding Sikkim, registered rainfall deficits during June, indicating a weak beginning to the 2026 Southwest Monsoon. The East and Northeast Meteorological Sub-Division—which includes all eight Northeastern states along with Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal—recorded an overall rainfall deficiency exceeding 30 percent during June and July, the first half of the four-month Southwest Monsoon season extending from June to September.
Among the Northeastern states, Sikkim, Tripura, and Nagaland managed to record rainfall within the IMD’s “normal” category for the combined June-July period. Under IMD guidelines, rainfall ranging between 19 percent below normal and 19 percent above normal is classified as normal.
However, the remaining five states experienced substantial rainfall shortages. Meghalaya recorded the highest deficiency at 58 percent, followed by Arunachal Pradesh with a 41 percent shortfall, Manipur with 40 percent, Assam with 28 percent, and Mizoram with a 24 percent deficiency.
The rainfall situation was even more concerning during June alone. Nagaland registered a rainfall deficiency of 56 percent, Arunachal Pradesh 44 percent, Assam and Mizoram each recorded a 37 percent deficit, while Tripura experienced a 36 percent shortfall. Meghalaya and Manipur were classified under the IMD’s “Large Deficient” rainfall category after recording deficiencies of 74 percent and 71 percent respectively during the opening month of the monsoon.
Meteorologists noted that although July brought episodes of extremely heavy rainfall leading to floods and landslides, these intense weather events were highly localized and insufficient to compensate for the widespread rainfall deficit accumulated over larger geographical areas.
The IMD has also expressed concern over the outlook for the remaining monsoon season. According to its latest seasonal forecast, India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season, covering August and September 2026.
The department stated that nationwide rainfall during August is expected to remain below 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Many regions across the country are likely to witness below-normal rainfall, although parts of East and Northeast India, Central India, Northwest India, and Eastern Peninsular India may still receive normal to above-normal precipitation due to localized weather systems.
Weather experts attribute the current rainfall pattern primarily to weak monsoon circulation over the Bay of Bengal, reduced formation of low-pressure systems, inactive monsoon troughs, and the growing influence of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.
Climate scientists have warned that one of the strongest El Nino events on record is expected to develop during the second half of 2026. The phenomenon could bring hotter and drier weather across much of Asia while increasing rainfall over parts of the Americas. Experts also cautioned that the impacts of El Nino are being amplified by long-term global climate change, resulting in increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Despite the challenging weather conditions, meteorologists remain cautiously optimistic that the Northeast may receive adequate rainfall during the peak monsoon phase later in the season. They believe additional rainfall during August and September could partially reduce the seasonal deficit if favourable weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.
Agricultural experts have expressed concern over the impact of deficient rainfall on the ongoing Kharif cropping season. July is considered one of the most crucial months for sowing paddy and other rain-fed crops across India, particularly in the Northeastern region where agriculture remains heavily dependent on monsoon rainfall.
Officials from the Manipur Agriculture Department stated that inadequate rainfall, combined with the prolonged ethnic conflict affecting parts of the state, has created significant challenges for farmers. Irrigation facilities remain limited in several districts, increasing dependence on timely monsoon rains.
A senior agriculture official said that despite these difficulties, the state government has implemented security arrangements and various supportive measures to ensure farming activities continue in both the Imphal Valley and hill districts during the Kharif season.
The Southwest Monsoon entered substantial parts of the Northeastern region on June 7, two days later than its normal onset. By June 10, the monsoon had covered the entire Northeast, according to IMD Meteorological Centres in Guwahati and Agartala.
Although the delayed onset itself was relatively minor, experts believe the overall weakness in monsoon circulation significantly affected rainfall distribution across the region during June and July.
The Northeast’s economy remains highly dependent on agriculture, with a large proportion of rural households relying on rain-fed farming for their livelihoods. Adequate rainfall during the remaining months of the monsoon is essential not only for successful Kharif cultivation but also for replenishing rivers, reservoirs, groundwater reserves, and maintaining ecological balance.
Hydrologists also emphasize that consistent monsoon rainfall is critical for ensuring drinking water availability, hydropower generation, and environmental sustainability across the ecologically sensitive Northeastern region.
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As climate variability continues to reshape traditional weather patterns, the IMD has advised state governments, farmers, and disaster management authorities to remain vigilant and closely monitor evolving weather forecasts. While hopes remain for improved rainfall during the remainder of the season, the combination of rainfall deficits, localized extreme weather events, and the expected strengthening of El Nino underscores the growing challenge of managing water resources and agricultural planning in one of India’s most climate-sensitive regions.
