The global oil supply is expected to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 100.7 million bpd this year, with a full recovery in supplies from Gulf producers now deferred until 2027. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly Oil Market Report, global oil production fell by 1.6 million bpd in August, as more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remained shut amid heightened security risks. The IEA expects the production to rebound by eight million barrels per day next year.
Meanwhile, the IEA expects global oil demand to contract by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, larger than its previous forecast of a 1.6 million bpd decline. The agency said that the continuing impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran is delaying the prospect of a normalisation of oil flows into 2027. Global oil demand is projected to recover by 2.6 million bpd next year, narrowly offsetting this year’s losses.
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