The AQIS is reportedly expanding its regional terror network through online propaganda, proxy groups and Bangladesh-based affiliates, with India’s northeastern states emerging as a potential area of focus, according to a recent United Nations Security Council report and Indian intelligence assessments.
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the regional affiliate of Al-Qaeda, is reportedly undergoing a strategic transformation, moving from a fragmented and relatively inactive outfit towards a more structured regional network with ambitions to expand its influence across India and neighbouring countries.
According to a recent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report, AQIS has increasingly relied on online propaganda, ideological influence and proxy organisations while maintaining a relatively low operational profile. Indian intelligence officials believe that this strategy of remaining below the radar has allowed the group to preserve its network while major security agencies concentrated on other prominent terrorist organisations.
AQIS was established in 2014 with the stated objective of creating a strong operational base in South Asia, with India identified as a major area of focus. Despite its ambitions, the organisation failed to develop the large-scale operational capabilities initially anticipated and has not conducted a major attack since its formation, according to the assessment cited in the report.
However, security officials now believe that the absence of major attacks should not be interpreted as the disappearance of the organisation. Instead, AQIS is said to have concentrated on building ideological networks, maintaining propaganda channels and developing proxy structures that could operate under different names in different parts of India.
Online propaganda remains a key strategy
Indian intelligence officials have assessed that AQIS benefited from staying away from the immediate attention of security agencies. During a period when groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed received significant attention, AQIS continued its activities largely through online platforms and ideological propaganda.
The group has also been linked to or associated with proxy organisations, including the Base Movement in southern India, Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH) and Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen (IuM). Officials say these organisations have generally maintained a low profile while focusing on specific targets and local issues.
The Base Movement, for instance, has been associated with threats against politicians, judges and police personnel whom its ideology describes as opponents. Investigations into different cases have also indicated ideological connections between AQIS and some of these proxy structures.
Security agencies believe the use of regional or issue-specific groups provides AQIS with an additional layer of separation from its central organisation. Such a structure could allow the larger network to retain ideological influence while individual groups operate under different identities.
Afghanistan developments created space for AQIS
According to intelligence officials, developments in Afghanistan have also indirectly helped AQIS maintain a lower profile. The continuing tensions involving the Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISKP have remained a major focus of regional counter-terrorism agencies.
Officials believe AQIS used this environment to concentrate on strengthening its broader network rather than seeking immediate high-profile attacks. Its continued online presence, they say, ensured that its ideology remained visible even while its ground-level activities appeared limited.
The UNSC assessment that AQIS has evolved into a more structured regional network has therefore raised concerns about the organisation’s long-term strategy rather than only its current operational capability.
Northeastern India emerges as a potential focus
Indian intelligence officials believe AQIS could increasingly seek to establish region-specific networks in parts of the country that have so far received comparatively less attention from the organisation.
After proxy structures associated with AQIS emerged in parts of northern and southern India, officials say the eastern and northeastern regions could become a potential area of focus.
The northeastern states are particularly significant because of their geographical proximity to Bangladesh, where AQIS has established links with extremist organisations.
Bangladesh has long been regarded as an important operating environment for AQIS-linked networks. Organisations such as Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Harkat-ul-Jihadi al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) have been identified as AQIS affiliates or associated groups.
The latest UNSC report has also highlighted concerns that AQIS could attempt to exploit instability in Bangladesh to establish operational cells. Any expansion of AQIS-linked networks in Bangladesh could have implications for India’s northeastern states because of their close geographical and social connections with the neighbouring country.
Bangladesh connection raises security concerns
Security officials say groups such as ABT and HuJI-B have previously shown interest in areas covering northeastern India and West Bengal. If AQIS seeks to strengthen its operational capabilities in eastern India, these established networks could potentially provide ideological or logistical support.
Officials therefore believe the organisation’s strategy could involve creating additional regional proxies rather than operating directly under the AQIS name. The model would allow individual groups to focus on specific geographical areas while remaining connected to a broader ideological framework.
The reported links involving AGuH and the Base Movement have reinforced these concerns. Investigations into several cases have pointed to ideological influence associated with AQIS, illustrating how the organisation’s messaging can extend beyond its formal membership.
The developments have prompted security agencies to closely monitor AQIS propaganda, suspected proxy organisations and cross-border extremist networks. While officials have not suggested that a large-scale AQIS attack is imminent, the assessment highlights the potential risks posed by an organisation that has remained comparatively quiet while attempting to rebuild its regional structure.
For India, the emerging concern is therefore not only the possibility of direct AQIS operations but also the gradual expansion of an ideological ecosystem through localised proxy groups. With Bangladesh potentially serving as an important link and the northeastern states located close to the country’s border, intelligence agencies are expected to maintain heightened scrutiny of developments in the region.
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The UNSC assessment ultimately points to a shift in the AQIS strategy: rather than seeking immediate visibility through major attacks, the organisation appears focused on sustaining its ideology, developing regional networks and using proxy structures to gradually expand its footprint.
